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The FTSE is currently indicating a slightly lower opening, as traders are waiting for the release of the UK Nationwide House prices. While analysts are already expecting house prices to fall another 1.1% last month, there are rumours circulating that there is a risk that the number will be much lower then expected. This would put a squeeze on home builders and financial institutions.
Gold halted its losses on Friday finishing the day near 930 dollars per ounce. Gold is rising on speculation the dollar will weaken against the euro, boosting the appeal of the precious metals as alternative investments. In fact some traders are saying that the US dollar rally is on it last legs. This should keep gold above 920 for the rest of the week. Oil is on the defence again, as OPEC increased its output, while consumers are decreasing their demand for this pricey commodity. There is potential for oil to fall below the 120 dollar level.

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The FTSE is currently indicating a sharply lower opening, as traders are worried that the GDP numbers which are released this morning will come out on the weaker end. A weak number would deal another blow to the BOE which has been fighting a war on two fronts, Inflation and a sluggish economy. The good news is that a weaker GDP might force the hand of the BOE to cut interest rates at the next meeting, which would be a positive move for the FTSE.

Commodities managed to regain some ground after negative news regarding the US new claims data, which showed more then 400,000 new layoffs last week, putting the breaks to the recent strength of the US dollar. Gold which printed a low of under 920 dollars per ounce, is now trading north of the 925 dollar mark. We anticipate that the precious metal will regain more ground today, possibly finishing the day above 935 dollars. Oil which has been the biggest loser this week, managed to stabilize near the 125 dollar per barrel mark, and is currently trading north of 126 dollars. The economic data out of the US should dictate whether the price of oil is going to attempt another shot at 150, or try and break below 120.

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The FTSE is currently indicating a slightly lower opening, as traders are waiting for the release of the UK retail sales numbers. Recently the health of the consumers has come into question, with falling home prices and higher unemployment figures consumers are stuck between a rock and a hard place. We believe that the number will come in slightly weaker then expected, and result in weakness among the retail sector of the FTSE and a selloff in the GBP/USD.

Commodities suffered again last night, as the US dollar flexed its muscle yet again. Gold which started the week near the 970 level is now trading almost 50 dollars lower, and oil is below the 125 mark. This is all short lived, and we should see oil prices increase in the coming days. Expect oil prices near 130 before the end of the week. Gold, which is used to hedge the US dollar, might not see a return to recent highs for a while, but yesterdays sell off was way overdone, and a bounce back probably above 930 is in the cards

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Even low oil prices are not helping the FTSE this morning, which is indicated sharply down. Some can be attributed to the increase in UK companies that are experiencing financial problems. With no economic news in UK until Wednesday, traders are back to buying on rumours and selling on the news. Watch for some traders to be squaring trades ahead of tomorrows BOE meeting minutes release.

Oil was quiet yesterday, and we are expecting the same this morning. This is mostly a technical analysis, as it seems like oil needs to consolidate here before trying to attempt another shot at the summit put in place last earlier this month. Gold is moving higher again, we are looking for 1,000 dollars per ounce before the Labour day.

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The FTSE is currently indicating a flat opening, with traders analyzing what the disastrous HBOS offering means for the market sentiment. A few are worried that investors are getting smarter and are not just handing over their money to these struggling banks. We believe that as we get closer to the open, the FTSE will dip lower and open in negative territory.

Commodities got hammered last week as the US dollar showed some strength, especially with oil giving back more then 10% from its intraweek high. This morning oil is higher, indicating that the optimism of the US dollar strength was over done. We are looking for oil to be back north of 135 before the end of the week. Gold was actually a winner last week, and looks to continue its trip back to the peak its set early this year.   

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